IPCC 5: Anything new?

The much awaited first tome, which focuses on the science of climate change, was published on 27 September and has been the victim of several leaks, with at least three confidential drafts made public in the last year.

So what does it tell us?

According to the report, humans have been the dominant cause of global warming. The panel is 95% certain that “human influence on climate caused more than half the observed increase in global average surface temperatures from 1951-2010”. This is a significant increase from 50% in 1995.

Governments wanted a clear response as to why global warming has stalled. While agreeing that the rate of warming over the past 15 years is less than the trend since 1951, the panel highlighted the overall picture is still of accelerated warming. Whilst many have used this pause as an argument against climate change, 15 years is not long enough to draw conclusions as confirmed by the report. The effects of climate change can be observed everywhere; the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have shrunk and glaciers continue to melt at an increasing rate, while sea levels are expected to rise more quickly than over the past 40 years. Explanations for the pause include the uptake of heat by oceans.

In general, the report does not reflect on anything that climate scientists do not know; rather it is a review of scientific literature. However, international governmental endorsement of climate change and its latest science should not be underestimated. Having confirmed the severity of climate change, the next steps should now be action, which will be the focus of the next IPCC reports. We all need to face up to the facts and businesses should actively include climate change and sustainability into their strategy. Some uncertainties around the science do remain; however, this is not an excuse for inaction. The risk is far too big to ignore, as highlighted by the IPCC 5 report, and in order to maintain long-term and sustainable growth, we need to change how we do business. The longer we delay climate mitigation, the harder addressing climate change will become.